This year, global milk supplies are likely to decline, as pressure on farmers' profitability in the US has led to a larger than usual slowdown, while the EU is limited by fewer dairy herds.

According to AHDB Dairy, a British non-profit organization for the provision of products and services for British dairy farming, the rate of increase in world milk production in 2019 slowed down from 0.9% to 0.3% (+900 million liters).

This is due to the fact that global consumption of fresh dairy products is expected to increase by 1.8%. In the first two months of this year, milk production in the European Union continued to depend on the effects of last year's drought. This has led to a drop in milk production compared to last year.

However, strong supply growth in March offset the disappointing start of the year. In general, in the first quarter, milk supplies to the EU grew by 0.3% (+ 130 million liters) compared to last year.

The EU’s milk production growth in 2019 is expected to be relatively modest at 0.7%, which is approximately 1 billion liters.

However, production growth may be limited, as in the EU the size of the dairy herd decreased by 1.6% (-374,000 heads) per year due to higher culling rates.

In the US, milk supply growth is expected to slow. Historically, milk production in the United States increased annually by 1-2%. A long period of lower prices put pressure on farmers, which led to an increase in culling and an increase in the number of producers.

In Australia, milk production in the first quarter decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year. In 2019, production is expected to decline by 1%.